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☆ A CIO at a $2 trillion asset manager says the Magnificent 7 are too expensive, and shares which sectors investors should focus on and which to avoid in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Marco Pirondini, the CIO of Amundi US, shared the same sentiments as his colleague and warned investors about following the crowd this year. In a recent interview with Business Insider, Pirondini emphasized the advantages of adding longer-duration bonds at a time when yields remain near 5%. He noted that the asset class was a great way to ensure steady yields in a complex economic environment. When interest rates were lower, you could justify paying higher multiples. After the stress that banks endured in 2023, they are expected to be the beneficiaries of dropping interest rates, he said.

Persons: Craig Sterling, Marco Pirondini, Pirondini Organizations: Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Business, Amundi, NYSE Locations: Japan

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S

The dollar index declined more than 1% last week, its heaviest fall since mid-July and hit a six-week low. World stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) too had their strongest week in a year as expectations the Fed was done raising rates gathered steam. "So it's good then there is expectation for the Fed and other central banks to end the rate hike cycle sooner." Treasury yields slumped last week after softness in U.S. jobs and manufacturing data and after Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke of 'balanced' risks. The drop in the dollar and yields helped underpin gold at $1,984 , within striking distance of the recent five-month peak of $2,009.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Tina Teng, Jerome Powell, Teng, Shri Navaratnam, Simon Cameron, Moore, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Aussie, CMC Markets, J.P.Morgan Securities, Treasury, European Central Bank, Bank of, CMC, Bank of Japan, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Auckland, China, U.S, Bank of England, bitcoin

☆ Dollar steady but remains vulnerable after Fed steer
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index declined more than 1% last week, its heaviest fall since mid-July and hit a six-week low. World stocks too had their strongest week in a year as expectations the Fed was done raising rates gathered steam. Tina Teng, a market analyst at CMC Markets in Auckland, expects the trend to sustain through November. Treasury yields slumped last week after softness in U.S. jobs and manufacturing data and after Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke of "balanced" risks. The drop in the dollar and yields helped underpin gold at $1,990, within striking distance of the recent five-month peak of $2,009.

Persons: uptrend, Tina Teng, Teng, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal, Aussie, CMC Markets, JPMorgan Securities, JPMorgan, Treasury, European Central Bank, Bank of, CMC, Bank of Japan Locations: Auckland, China, U.S, Bank of England

☆ Investors hope U.S. job numbers give Fed less reason to hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although the MSCI All-Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was 0.2% higher, it has lost about 8% since its July peak, leaving it about 7% ahead for the year. We are talking about the duration, rather than higher rates," Spencer said. The dollar index is up 12 weeks in a row, equalling a streak that ran from July to October 2014. The dollar index was steady on Friday at 106.38. Gold was also steady at $1,821 an ounce after nine days of losses driven by rising global bond yields.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Nonfarm, Patrick Spencer, RW Baird, Spencer, YEN, Kyle Rodda, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Shri Navaratnam, Clarence Fernandez, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Treasury, Global, Analysts, Tokyo's Nikkei, London, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Japan

☆ Yen intervention a hard sell even as 150 to the dollar 'red line' beckons
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But, Japanese authorities could find propping up their currency both difficult to achieve and hard to justify. To make even a ripple in the $5 trillion currency market, the BOJ would need to draw down massive amounts of dollar reserves. Wakabayashi, like many other analysts and investors, considers the 150 yen per dollar level a red line for currency intervention, not least because of its significance as a symbol of climbing costs of living from imported food and fuel. INTERVENTION IMMINENTThe yen careened to a 32-year trough at 151.94 last October before being reined in by several bouts of heavy intervention, the first by Japanese authorities in a generation. Measures of expected market volatility remain subdued.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Bank of Japan's hesitancy, Kazuo Ueda, You've, they're, Bart Wakabayashi, Fumio Kishida, Shunichi Suzuki, Masayuki Kichikawa, Ray Attrill, Janet Yellen, Aninda Mitra, Mitra, Kevin Buckland, Alun John, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan's, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, State Street Bank, Trust, Finance, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Ministry of Finance, National Australia Bank, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Washington, Asia, London

☆ Dollar to stay bright this year before fading in 2024, analysts say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Sarupya Ganguly | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Backed by a strong economy and rising U.S. Treasury yields, some of the highest among developed economies, the dollar despite bouts of weakness has stayed resilient against most major currencies. That strong performance has brought the long-held view of a weaker dollar in the short to medium term under review. A solid 81% majority of analysts, 43 of 53, who answered an additional question said the risk to their dollar outlook was to the upside, the Sept. 1-6 Reuters poll showed. Elsewhere, other Asian currencies stand to face significant friction in recouping losses for the year, according to the poll. Almost all were forecast to at best stay within a range or trade modestly higher against the dollar in coming months.

Persons: Jane Foley, Lee Hardman, pare, Sterling, Sarupya Ganguly, Sujith Pai, Devayani, Pranoy, Hari Kishan, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Treasury, . Federal, Rabobank, Argentine, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, America, Brazilian

☆ Morning Bid: Global business splutters, dollar surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But the U.S. jobs picture underscores the "soft-landing" consensus - something Tuesday's updates on global business surveys from last month suggest may not be the case elsewhere. Even though messy workouts of China's ongoing property bust were some relief - as real estate giant Country Garden made some last minute dollar bond payments - the funk in the wider economy clearly persists. That saw the euro fall back against the dollar to levels not seen since mid-June. But that provided little solace to sterling , which was also pummelled by the dollar to its lowest since June. The sour business polls took some heat out of the recent oil price rebound , but did little to calm the long end of the bond market.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, disinflation, Philip Lowe, Glazer, Luis de Guindos, Isabel Schnabel, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, Stock, Wall, English football, Manchester United, Sunday, Central Bank, ECB, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, China

☆ Euro falls as ECB hike bets take hit on inflation, policymaker comments
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. But, while euro area-wide inflation unexpectedly held at 5.3% this month, underlying price growth fell, complicating matters for the ECB, who now appear more likely to keep interest rates unchanged next month than raise them. ECB rate-setter Schnabel - considered one of the most hawkish members on the ECB - said euro zone growth was weaker than predicted but that does not necessarily void the need for more rate hikes. "I think the fact she is flagging downside risks to growth is putting some downside pressure on the euro." Both sterling and the euro are set for monthly drops of over 1% against the dollar in August.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, policymaker Isabel Schnabel, Schnabel, We've, Michael Brown, Chris Turner, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Trader, Traders, Federal, Commerce Department, UK, CEE, New Zealand, Aussie, Thomson Locations: Tokyo

[1/2] U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. Markets are now focusing their attention on U.S. consumer prices data due out on Wednesday, which will provide more clarity on the progress the Fed has made in its fight against stubbornly high inflation. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. "There have been no signs of relief in the labour market data and markets continue to price in more. Given the rising inflation backdrop in Japan, the market is starting to become more wary that perhaps a policy tweak could come."

Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Scotiabank . Markets, Sterling, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Swiss, greenback, Swiss National Bank, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, Norwegian, Swedish, Swiss, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

U.S. interest rate expectations have been a key driver of the dollar since the Fed began its tightening cycle last year. A survey from the New York Federal Reserve on Monday showed waning near-term inflation expectations among Americans, who said last month they were expecting the weakest near-term inflation gains in just over two years. Sterling , meanwhile, hit a near 15-month high of $1.2913 after British wage growth hit a joint record high, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to tighten policy further to bring inflation under control. The pound has been rallying on a stronger economy and aggressive repricing of expectations for tighter BoE policy, according to Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.1% to $1.1012, the Australian dollar steadied at $0.6680, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6198.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Shaun Osborne, Sterling, Kirstine Kundby, That's, Kundby, Nielsen, Moh Siong Sim, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam, Edmund Klamann, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Scotiabank . Markets, New York Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Danske Bank, Nielsen, Singapore, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, . U.S, Japan, China's

BENGALURU, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies for the rest of the year despite expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials as the U.S. economy stays resilient, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. "The tightness of the U.S. labour market may help the economy and the dollar in the very short term," said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "Even if we see (interest) rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major euro uptrend will start without stronger growth." Indeed, a majority of common contributors showed the dollar view against most major currencies for the coming six months has been either upgraded or kept unchanged from a month ago. "The dollar is getting a tailwind from the Fed ... the current strength is on a repricing of the Fed (rate) higher," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kit Juckes, Jonas Goltermann, Sterling, John Hardy, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Srivastava, Sarupya Ganguly, Anitta Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Societe Generale, Futures Trading Commission, Capital Economics, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia, Britain, Bengaluru

☆ Yen weak, dollar drifts as traders weigh Fed rate hike path
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yen weakened 0.09% to 144.45 to start the second half of the year, having lost 9% against the dollar in the first six months of the year. Against the euro, the yen was hovering at 157.66, just under the 15-year low of 158 it touched last week. It intervened again in October after the yen plunged to a 32-year low of 151.94. Markets are pricing in a 84% chance of the Fed hiking rates by 25 basis points in its July meeting, CME FedWatch tool showed. The Australian dollar rose 0.02% to $0.667, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.42% at $0.615.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Suzuki, Marc Chandler, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Cushing, Kim Coghill Organizations: Finance, Japan, Bannockburn Forex, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S . Federal, Citi, Labor, Survey, NatWest, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Bannockburn, Japan, U.S ., U.S, United States, Singapore

☆ Yen tentative, dollar soft as traders weigh Fed rate hike path
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A Chinese 100 yuan banknote, a 1 U.S. dollar bill and a 50 euro banknote are lying on a table. The yen remained hunkered just below the psychologically important barrier of 145 per U.S. dollar on Monday, while the dollar was on the back foot after U.S. economic data last week showed slightly easing inflation and consumer spending. Against the euro, the yen was hovering at 157.495, below the 15-year low of 158 it touched last week. It was at 183.47 per sterling , just below the seven-and-a-half-year low of 183.86 it hit on Friday. The Australian dollar fell 0.14% to $0.666, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.16% to $0.613

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Marc Chandler, bitcoin Organizations: Finance, Bannockburn Forex, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S . Federal, PCE, Citi, Labor, Survey, Sterling, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, Bannockburn, U.S ., United States

☆ London stocks open lower as inflation data deepens rate hike concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Pressured by a firm sterling , the export-oriented FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was down 0.5% at 0710 GMT. The FTSE 250 (.FTMC) mid-cap index shed 0.7%. After data showed consumer inflation was unchanged at 8.7% in May, contrary to expectations of a slight fall, traders ramped up their bets of a 50 basis point (bps) BoE rate hike on Thursday from the 25 bps hike anticipated earlier. In a testimony later in the day, Powell is poised to be questioned on the future of rate hikes by the world's most influential central bank. Reporting by Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, BoE, Powell, homebuilder, Ankika Biswas, Sonia Cheema Organizations: Bank of England, Federal, FTSE, Berkeley Group Holdings, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

REUTERS/Ralph OrlowskiSINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - Global shares rose to a one-month high and the dollar trounced major currencies on Friday as markets reflected increased hopes for a deal over the U.S. debt ceiling that could avoid a calamitous default. The moves came after Democratic negotiators told President Joe Biden they were making "steady progress" on a deal to lift the U.S. debt ceiling and avoid a default by the world's largest economy, whose currency and Treasury debt markets underpin global trade and investment. "It's a high risk but low probability event," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at European fund manager Carmignac, said of the debt ceiling. Debt ceiling relief complicates the outlook for U.S. government bonds, where yields broadly track Federal Reserve interest rates, as fading recession risk could prompt the world's most influential central bank to keep monetary policy tight as inflation remains high. Elsewhere in markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 (.N225) hit its highest since 1990, reflecting debt ceiling optimism as well as the fact global investors are returning to Japan as its economy and corporate governance improve.

☆ U.S. debt drama and data hoist dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar hit a two-week peak of 136.69 yen overnight and hovered just below that at 136.54 in the Asia day. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6244, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.

☆ Dollar awaits inflation data, rattled by debt ceiling impasse
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar seesawed on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers made no headway in the debt ceiling crisis, although volatility was minimal ahead of inflation data that could be instrumental in determining where interest rates head. The dollar held onto most of Tuesday's gains, thanks to another sharp rise in short-dated Treasury yields and to the nervousness that prevailed over Wednesday's U.S. inflation data. The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.0947, as was sterling , which eased 0.1% to $1.2605. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index edged up 0.14% to 101.76, having earlier fallen by as much as 0.11%. The Japanese yen was steady against the dollar at 135.25 and fell 0.1% against the euro to 148.075, while the Australian dollar fell 0.2% to $0.675.

☆ Dollar braces for inflation, rattled by debt ceiling impasse
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar seesawed on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers made no headway in the debt ceiling crisis, although volatility was minimal ahead of inflation data that could be instrumental in determining where interest rates head. Biden, McCarthy and the three other top congressional leaders are set to meet again on Friday. The dollar held onto most of Tuesday's gains, thanks to another sharp rise in short-dated Treasury yields and to the nervousness that prevailed over Wednesday's U.S. inflation data. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index steadied at 101.64. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was steady against the dollar at 135.25 and against the euro at 148.155, while the Australian dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6755.

The dollar remained relatively weaker against most of its major peers, even as the dollar index rose 0.059% and the euro fell 0.15% to $1.1002. Friday's robust U.S. payrolls report prompted investors to dial back their expectations for the timing and size of the Fed's first interest rate cut. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose a touch above 4.0%. The dollar rose 0.18% against the yen. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

In Europe, the broad pan-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.34% on expectations non-U.S. stocks will outperform in the months ahead. Sterling , which has gained 4.4% against the dollar this year, earlier hit a 12-month high of 1.2668 ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday. The dollar rose 0.01% against the yen. "The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

☆ Dollar on rates-watch as traders wait on loans data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen slipped slightly, reflecting Friday's move higher in U.S. bond yields that followed strong jobs data. "But for the time being, the market is likely to run with the theme of a peak in Fed rates justifying a clear peak in the dollar." The U.S. dollar index dropped for a second week in a row last week, losing about 0.4%. "There is a risk that regional bank issues could escalate, posing a broader risk to the financial system and taking the dollar (higher)," said Standard Chartered's head of G10 FX research, Steve Englander. "We think that the escalation of debt-ceiling concerns is a more likely source of risk-off dollar strength via demand for immediate dollar liquidity."

If it is just a lagged statistical quirk, then the huge disparity in March inflation rates - of some 3-5 percentage points with western peers - should narrow sharply by yearend. With an election due next year, that may prove a big factor in any re-convergence of inflation rates if the cost of that is a much deeper economic downturn that rest. The question about Britain as an inflation outlier re-opens the age-old issue about just how that should be priced into sterling. For much of the past 10 years, G7 inflation rates were largely locked together in either their subdued pre-pandemic state or during the wild price spikes since. If UK inflation turns "idiosyncratic" among its peers during the much-vaunted normalization, then currency markets may need to rethink fundamental long-term assumptions about purchasing power, Gallo reckons.

☆ Dollar finds footing as banking crisis fears calm down
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In early trade, the dollar selling of the past two sessions had abated and the greenback rose about 0.2% on both the euro and yen. Rallies in sterling, Scandinavian currencies, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar also seemed to lose steam - though without really giving back any ground. "I think we end up with a lower Fed peak than was priced a week ago and all else equal that should result in the U.S. dollar being a bit weaker than where it was a week ago." Interest rate futures pricing now implies an 80% chance of a 25 basis point U.S. rate hike next week. The New Zealand dollar dipped 0.2% to $0.6225 and the Aussie , up 1.5% for the week so far, was flat at $0.6682 as investors caught their breath.

☆ Take Five: A macro-packed punch for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/ THE PRICE IS RIGHTU.S. inflation data have been pivot points for markets and Tuesday's report will likely be consequential as investors gauge whether the Federal Reserve will return to the jumbo-sized rate hikes that shook markets last year. The European Central Bank has raised rates by 3 percentage points since July to 2.5% and looks set for another half-point increase on Thursday. Austria's central bank chief Robert Holzmann wants half-point rises at each of the next four meetings. Riskier, more fragile emerging markets, especially those with twin deficits, could feel the heaviest punch if the Fed goes all the way to 6%. Emerging markets countries hiking (+) or cutting (-) their policy ratesCompiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Kripa Jayaram and Vincent Flasseur; Edited by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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